Greater Toronto real estate wasn’t looking as confident as it had been recently. TRREB data shows the price of a typical home (composite benchmark) climbed in June 2023. However, the increase was notably smaller than recent months, potentially indicating slowing momentum. At the same time, some affluent suburbs returned to falling prices—one dropping as much as $50k in June.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Rising
Greater Toronto real estate printed another month of gains at a high level. The TRREB composite benchmark rose 0.6% (+$6,900) to $1,171,300 in June. A substantial increase that leaves prices just 1.9% (-$22,100) lower than last year. Diving deeper, both the monthly and annual data yield some interesting insights.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Still Off Peak
The composite benchmark price of a home across Greater Toronto.
Month | Canadian Dollars |
---|---|
Jan 2005 | 315,900 |
Feb 2005 | 318,800 |
Mar 2005 | 322,400 |
Apr 2005 | 325,400 |
May 2005 | 327,800 |
Jun 2005 | 329,800 |
Jul 2005 | 329,000 |
Aug 2005 | 330,900 |
Sep 2005 | 331,500 |
Oct 2005 | 332,800 |
Nov 2005 | 333,300 |
Dec 2005 | 331,100 |
Jan 2006 | 335,300 |
Feb 2006 | 339,000 |
Mar 2006 | 342,600 |
Apr 2006 | 346,300 |
May 2006 | 347,900 |
Jun 2006 | 348,200 |
Jul 2006 | 346,000 |
Aug 2006 | 346,500 |
Sep 2006 | 348,400 |
Oct 2006 | 346,400 |
Nov 2006 | 346,600 |
Dec 2006 | 344,700 |
Jan 2007 | 346,500 |
Feb 2007 | 353,300 |
Mar 2007 | 357,000 |
Apr 2007 | 361,500 |
May 2007 | 364,100 |
Jun 2007 | 367,300 |
Jul 2007 | 368,000 |
Aug 2007 | 369,800 |
Sep 2007 | 372,200 |
Oct 2007 | 374,000 |
Nov 2007 | 374,100 |
Dec 2007 | 373,300 |
Jan 2008 | 376,300 |
Feb 2008 | 378,900 |
Mar 2008 | 379,400 |
Apr 2008 | 380,900 |
May 2008 | 380,100 |
Jun 2008 | 378,500 |
Jul 2008 | 374,900 |
Aug 2008 | 373,000 |
Sep 2008 | 371,200 |
Oct 2008 | 367,000 |
Nov 2008 | 361,900 |
Dec 2008 | 354,100 |
Jan 2009 | 349,500 |
Feb 2009 | 348,400 |
Mar 2009 | 350,800 |
Apr 2009 | 355,400 |
May 2009 | 361,400 |
Jun 2009 | 367,900 |
Jul 2009 | 373,100 |
Aug 2009 | 378,900 |
Sep 2009 | 384,600 |
Oct 2009 | 390,100 |
Nov 2009 | 394,100 |
Dec 2009 | 395,400 |
Jan 2010 | 400,500 |
Feb 2010 | 407,300 |
Mar 2010 | 410,700 |
Apr 2010 | 412,300 |
May 2010 | 411,500 |
Jun 2010 | 409,700 |
Jul 2010 | 406,200 |
Aug 2010 | 406,000 |
Sep 2010 | 406,600 |
Oct 2010 | 407,000 |
Nov 2010 | 408,000 |
Dec 2010 | 407,200 |
Jan 2011 | 412,800 |
Feb 2011 | 419,700 |
Mar 2011 | 425,500 |
Apr 2011 | 431,100 |
May 2011 | 435,300 |
Jun 2011 | 438,500 |
Jul 2011 | 439,500 |
Aug 2011 | 441,700 |
Sep 2011 | 443,800 |
Oct 2011 | 445,100 |
Nov 2011 | 447,100 |
Dec 2011 | 448,400 |
Jan 2012 | 452,900 |
Feb 2012 | 460,900 |
Mar 2012 | 467,100 |
Apr 2012 | 473,100 |
May 2012 | 476,200 |
Jun 2012 | 475,700 |
Jul 2012 | 474,200 |
Aug 2012 | 471,300 |
Sep 2012 | 472,000 |
Oct 2012 | 471,100 |
Nov 2012 | 467,800 |
Dec 2012 | 469,900 |
Jan 2013 | 469,800 |
Feb 2013 | 477,700 |
Mar 2013 | 483,300 |
Apr 2013 | 488,600 |
May 2013 | 492,200 |
Jun 2013 | 492,900 |
Jul 2013 | 493,200 |
Aug 2013 | 494,200 |
Sep 2013 | 496,100 |
Oct 2013 | 499,300 |
Nov 2013 | 500,600 |
Dec 2013 | 501,500 |
Jan 2014 | 507,300 |
Feb 2014 | 516,100 |
Mar 2014 | 522,200 |
Apr 2014 | 528,500 |
May 2014 | 532,000 |
Jun 2014 | 534,400 |
Jul 2014 | 534,100 |
Aug 2014 | 534,900 |
Sep 2014 | 537,800 |
Oct 2014 | 540,100 |
Nov 2014 | 541,500 |
Dec 2014 | 542,400 |
Jan 2015 | 547,600 |
Feb 2015 | 558,500 |
Mar 2015 | 568,400 |
Apr 2015 | 577,000 |
May 2015 | 582,200 |
Jun 2015 | 586,700 |
Jul 2015 | 588,600 |
Aug 2015 | 591,200 |
Sep 2015 | 595,200 |
Oct 2015 | 596,400 |
Nov 2015 | 597,300 |
Dec 2015 | 599,500 |
Jan 2016 | 609,900 |
Feb 2016 | 624,800 |
Mar 2016 | 639,700 |
Apr 2016 | 657,900 |
May 2016 | 673,400 |
Jun 2016 | 684,700 |
Jul 2016 | 690,600 |
Aug 2016 | 699,100 |
Sep 2016 | 709,200 |
Oct 2016 | 717,000 |
Nov 2016 | 721,200 |
Dec 2016 | 727,800 |
Jan 2017 | 751,800 |
Feb 2017 | 796,200 |
Mar 2017 | 842,300 |
Apr 2017 | 856,400 |
May 2017 | 840,200 |
Jun 2017 | 813,400 |
Jul 2017 | 784,900 |
Aug 2017 | 766,000 |
Sep 2017 | 761,200 |
Oct 2017 | 757,600 |
Nov 2017 | 752,600 |
Dec 2017 | 748,200 |
Jan 2018 | 750,200 |
Feb 2018 | 755,500 |
Mar 2018 | 762,800 |
Apr 2018 | 766,800 |
May 2018 | 765,200 |
Jun 2018 | 763,100 |
Jul 2018 | 759,500 |
Aug 2018 | 755,200 |
Sep 2018 | 758,300 |
Oct 2018 | 758,600 |
Nov 2018 | 752,700 |
Dec 2018 | 747,600 |
Jan 2019 | 746,500 |
Feb 2019 | 754,400 |
Mar 2019 | 762,800 |
Apr 2019 | 767,300 |
May 2019 | 770,400 |
Jun 2019 | 770,600 |
Jul 2019 | 770,800 |
Aug 2019 | 770,100 |
Sep 2019 | 773,900 |
Oct 2019 | 778,400 |
Nov 2019 | 781,000 |
Dec 2019 | 783,400 |
Jan 2020 | 796,500 |
Feb 2020 | 821,200 |
Mar 2020 | 835,600 |
Apr 2020 | 822,700 |
May 2020 | 827,700 |
Jun 2020 | 833,300 |
Jul 2020 | 848,000 |
Aug 2020 | 860,700 |
Sep 2020 | 865,900 |
Oct 2020 | 867,700 |
Nov 2020 | 874,800 |
Dec 2020 | 884,700 |
Jan 2021 | 918,100 |
Feb 2021 | 960,700 |
Mar 2021 | 989,100 |
Apr 2021 | 1,000,800 |
May 2021 | 1,008,300 |
Jun 2021 | 1,011,500 |
Jul 2021 | 1,014,700 |
Aug 2021 | 1,022,800 |
Sep 2021 | 1,054,800 |
Oct 2021 | 1,102,500 |
Nov 2021 | 1,142,200 |
Dec 2021 | 1,176,000 |
Jan 2022 | 1,245,700 |
Feb 2022 | 1,313,600 |
Mar 2022 | 1,322,000 |
Apr 2022 | 1,291,500 |
May 2022 | 1,250,000 |
Jun 2022 | 1,193,500 |
Jul 2022 | 1,146,500 |
Aug 2022 | 1,113,900 |
Sep 2022 | 1,100,500 |
Oct 2022 | 1,088,300 |
Nov 2022 | 1,080,000 |
Dec 2022 | 1,071,400 |
Jan 2023 | 1,070,600 |
Feb 2023 | 1,089,300 |
Mar 2023 | 1,110,000 |
Apr 2023 | 1,139,100 |
May 2023 | 1,164,400 |
Jun 2023 | 1,171,300 |
Source: TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Monthly growth is rising at a very sharp rate—more than 3x the rate of target inflation. It also happens to be much smaller than the increases we’ve been seeing recently. Just a few months ago, the benchmark was climbing over $27k monthly. While a 0.6% increase is very large, it’s significantly smaller than we’ve been seeing. Higher financing costs are likely a major contributor to throttling growth.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Price Growth
The 12-month percent change for the composite benchmark price of a home across Greater Toronto.
Jan 2006Jan 2007Jan 2008Jan 2009Jan 2010Jan 2011Jan 2012Jan 2013Jan 2014Jan 2015Jan 2016Jan 2017Jan 2018Jan 2019Jan 2020Jan 2021Jan 2022Jan 2023-100102030Percent
Date | Percent |
---|---|
Jan 2006 | 6.14 |
Feb 2006 | 6.34 |
Mar 2006 | 6.27 |
Apr 2006 | 6.42 |
May 2006 | 6.13 |
Jun 2006 | 5.58 |
Jul 2006 | 5.17 |
Aug 2006 | 4.71 |
Sep 2006 | 5.1 |
Oct 2006 | 4.09 |
Nov 2006 | 3.99 |
Dec 2006 | 4.11 |
Jan 2007 | 3.34 |
Feb 2007 | 4.22 |
Mar 2007 | 4.2 |
Apr 2007 | 4.39 |
May 2007 | 4.66 |
Jun 2007 | 5.49 |
Jul 2007 | 6.36 |
Aug 2007 | 6.72 |
Sep 2007 | 6.83 |
Oct 2007 | 7.97 |
Nov 2007 | 7.93 |
Dec 2007 | 8.3 |
Jan 2008 | 8.6 |
Feb 2008 | 7.25 |
Mar 2008 | 6.27 |
Apr 2008 | 5.37 |
May 2008 | 4.39 |
Jun 2008 | 3.05 |
Jul 2008 | 1.88 |
Aug 2008 | 0.87 |
Sep 2008 | -0.27 |
Oct 2008 | -1.87 |
Nov 2008 | -3.26 |
Dec 2008 | -5.14 |
Jan 2009 | -7.12 |
Feb 2009 | -8.05 |
Mar 2009 | -7.54 |
Apr 2009 | -6.69 |
May 2009 | -4.92 |
Jun 2009 | -2.8 |
Jul 2009 | -0.48 |
Aug 2009 | 1.58 |
Sep 2009 | 3.61 |
Oct 2009 | 6.29 |
Nov 2009 | 8.9 |
Dec 2009 | 11.66 |
Jan 2010 | 14.59 |
Feb 2010 | 16.91 |
Mar 2010 | 17.08 |
Apr 2010 | 16.01 |
May 2010 | 13.86 |
Jun 2010 | 11.36 |
Jul 2010 | 8.87 |
Aug 2010 | 7.15 |
Sep 2010 | 5.72 |
Oct 2010 | 4.33 |
Nov 2010 | 3.53 |
Dec 2010 | 2.98 |
Jan 2011 | 3.07 |
Feb 2011 | 3.04 |
Mar 2011 | 3.6 |
Apr 2011 | 4.56 |
May 2011 | 5.78 |
Jun 2011 | 7.03 |
Jul 2011 | 8.2 |
Aug 2011 | 8.79 |
Sep 2011 | 9.15 |
Oct 2011 | 9.36 |
Nov 2011 | 9.58 |
Dec 2011 | 10.12 |
Jan 2012 | 9.71 |
Feb 2012 | 9.82 |
Mar 2012 | 9.78 |
Apr 2012 | 9.74 |
May 2012 | 9.4 |
Jun 2012 | 8.48 |
Jul 2012 | 7.9 |
Aug 2012 | 6.7 |
Sep 2012 | 6.35 |
Oct 2012 | 5.84 |
Nov 2012 | 4.63 |
Dec 2012 | 4.79 |
Jan 2013 | 3.73 |
Feb 2013 | 3.65 |
Mar 2013 | 3.47 |
Apr 2013 | 3.28 |
May 2013 | 3.36 |
Jun 2013 | 3.62 |
Jul 2013 | 4.01 |
Aug 2013 | 4.86 |
Sep 2013 | 5.11 |
Oct 2013 | 5.99 |
Nov 2013 | 7.01 |
Dec 2013 | 6.72 |
Jan 2014 | 7.98 |
Feb 2014 | 8.04 |
Mar 2014 | 8.05 |
Apr 2014 | 8.17 |
May 2014 | 8.09 |
Jun 2014 | 8.42 |
Jul 2014 | 8.29 |
Aug 2014 | 8.24 |
Sep 2014 | 8.41 |
Oct 2014 | 8.17 |
Nov 2014 | 8.17 |
Dec 2014 | 8.16 |
Jan 2015 | 7.94 |
Feb 2015 | 8.22 |
Mar 2015 | 8.85 |
Apr 2015 | 9.18 |
May 2015 | 9.44 |
Jun 2015 | 9.79 |
Jul 2015 | 10.2 |
Aug 2015 | 10.53 |
Sep 2015 | 10.67 |
Oct 2015 | 10.42 |
Nov 2015 | 10.3 |
Dec 2015 | 10.53 |
Jan 2016 | 11.38 |
Feb 2016 | 11.87 |
Mar 2016 | 12.54 |
Apr 2016 | 14.02 |
May 2016 | 15.66 |
Jun 2016 | 16.7 |
Jul 2016 | 17.33 |
Aug 2016 | 18.25 |
Sep 2016 | 19.15 |
Oct 2016 | 20.22 |
Nov 2016 | 20.74 |
Dec 2016 | 21.4 |
Jan 2017 | 23.27 |
Feb 2017 | 27.43 |
Mar 2017 | 31.67 |
Apr 2017 | 30.17 |
May 2017 | 24.77 |
Jun 2017 | 18.8 |
Jul 2017 | 13.65 |
Aug 2017 | 9.57 |
Sep 2017 | 7.33 |
Oct 2017 | 5.66 |
Nov 2017 | 4.35 |
Dec 2017 | 2.8 |
Jan 2018 | -0.21 |
Feb 2018 | -5.11 |
Mar 2018 | -9.44 |
Apr 2018 | -10.46 |
May 2018 | -8.93 |
Jun 2018 | -6.18 |
Jul 2018 | -3.24 |
Aug 2018 | -1.41 |
Sep 2018 | -0.38 |
Oct 2018 | 0.13 |
Nov 2018 | 0.01 |
Dec 2018 | -0.08 |
Jan 2019 | -0.49 |
Feb 2019 | -0.15 |
Mar 2019 | 0 |
Apr 2019 | 0.07 |
May 2019 | 0.68 |
Jun 2019 | 0.98 |
Jul 2019 | 1.49 |
Aug 2019 | 1.97 |
Sep 2019 | 2.06 |
Oct 2019 | 2.61 |
Nov 2019 | 3.76 |
Dec 2019 | 4.79 |
Jan 2020 | 6.7 |
Feb 2020 | 8.85 |
Mar 2020 | 9.54 |
Apr 2020 | 7.22 |
May 2020 | 7.44 |
Jun 2020 | 8.14 |
Jul 2020 | 10.02 |
Aug 2020 | 11.76 |
Sep 2020 | 11.89 |
Oct 2020 | 11.47 |
Nov 2020 | 12.01 |
Dec 2020 | 12.93 |
Jan 2021 | 15.27 |
Feb 2021 | 16.99 |
Mar 2021 | 18.37 |
Apr 2021 | 21.65 |
May 2021 | 21.82 |
Jun 2021 | 21.38 |
Jul 2021 | 19.66 |
Aug 2021 | 18.83 |
Sep 2021 | 21.82 |
Oct 2021 | 27.06 |
Nov 2021 | 30.57 |
Dec 2021 | 32.93 |
Jan 2022 | 35.68 |
Feb 2022 | 36.73 |
Mar 2022 | 33.66 |
Apr 2022 | 29.05 |
May 2022 | 23.97 |
Jun 2022 | 17.99 |
Jul 2022 | 12.99 |
Aug 2022 | 8.91 |
Sep 2022 | 4.33 |
Oct 2022 | -1.29 |
Nov 2022 | -5.45 |
Dec 2022 | -8.89 |
Jan 2023 | -14.06 |
Feb 2023 | -17.08 |
Mar 2023 | -16.04 |
Apr 2023 | -11.8 |
May 2023 | -6.85 |
Jun 2023 | -1.86 |
Source: TRREB; Better Dwelling.
The annual growth rate also shows home prices have rolled back nearly a year’s worth of losses. It’s sparking some investors to conclude the end of a correction, but prices remain 11.4 (-$150,700) lower than the peak. We might be looking at a recovery, but we’re just as likely looking at the “bull trap” phase of an asset cycle. Only time will tell.
In the meantime, let’s talk about the price divergence across the region that’s materializing.
City Prices Are Rising Much Faster
City of Toronto home prices are rising much faster than the Greater Region. Its composite benchmark climbed 1.0% (+$11,600) to $1,154,800 in June, and is 1.5% lower than last year. The current growth rate could push prices into positive annual growth in just two months. However, growth is also slowing much like the broad trend. With rates only set to rise higher this month, it’s an uphill battle to keep pushing prices higher.
Greater Toronto Has Seen Some Suburbs Return To Falling Prices
Greater Toronto’s affluent suburbs have returned to spiraling price declines. Oakville recently saw prices climb tens of thousands per month, but not last month. A typical home in Oakville fell a whopping 3.4% (-$50,000) in June, a big shift in sentiment.
Oakville wasn’t the only suburb to suddenly begin printing lower home prices. Rounding out the five largest drops over $20k was Halton Hills (-3.0%; -$36,700), Halton Region (-2.9%;-$36,000), Milton (-2.6%;-$29,400), and Burlington (-2.5%;-$26,600). These aren’t cottage country markets either, but close suburbs.
A Few Smaller Markets Saw Prices Launch Higher
A few markets saw large gains as well, just not as big as the largest declines. The biggest surge was observed in Pickering, where prices climbed 3.0% (+$31,800) in June. Following it for highest growth rate was Brock (+2.6%;+$18,700), and Dufferin County (+2.4%;+$19,300).
A sharp increase is unusual but not totally unexpected as interest rates climb. Sales tend to climb when panicked buyers scramble to use mortgage pre-approvals. If they don’t, they risk having to pay a higher interest rate with less leverage. As those pre-approvals roll off, leverage will begin to reflect financing conditions.
Source: https://betterdwelling.com/toronto-real-estate-prices-slow-suburbs-fall-as-much-as-50k-in-a-month/